Harris has recovered a slight lead among likely voters, the contest is tight enough that it’s unknown who will win the Electoral College.
According to a recent poll, Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing President Joe Biden in terms of independent support, which might cost her on election day.
In 2020, Biden won the independent voting block by 13 points over Donald Trump, but a recent ABC News/Ipsos survey shows Harris only one point ahead of the group. In nine of the last twelve presidential elections, the independent candidate has won.
Among registered voters, Harris leads 49 to 47 percent. With likely voters, Harris leads 51 to 47 percent.
Women are more likely to vote for the Democrat – Harris leads by 13 percent among women voters. While large parts of the poll are similar to the 2020 exit poll, Harris does better than Biden among college-educated white women and performs well among college graduates as a whole.
Harris also does better among Hispanic voters compared to earlier this month, the ABC poll shows, and she has expanded her lead among suburban women. She’s still doing well among some of the most important voter groups for Democrats, including Black voters.
Meanwhile, Trump performs strongly with rural voters and with white men who didn’t attend college. He’s also competitive against Harris among younger men.
When asked who has the mental acuity to be a good president, Harris leads Trump 49 to 38 percent in the poll. Trump had previously topped Biden in the category by 31 points.
Harris leads by 29 points in who has the physical health to be president, by 15 points in honesty and trustworthiness, by 10 points in understanding voters’ problems, and by eight points when survey respondents are asked who shares their personal values.
The vice president also led in terms of being trusted in a crisis, 43 to 41 percent.
Harris has improved her status among Hispanic voters since earlier this month; she now leads by 30 points – 64 to 34 percent – compared to 55 to 43 percent at the start of October.
Trump leads among white men without college degrees and rural voters by 41 points, similar to his 2020 performance. The ABC poll shows a shift among men under the age of 40; Harris led the group by six points earlier this month, but Trump currently leads the voting demographic by five percent.
