The Dallas Cowboys have recently faced difficult challenges. On offense, they are inconsistent and turnover-prone. From a defensive standpoint, they are getting pounded all over the place and are unable to stop the run.
There is an argument to be made that Brandon Aubrey and the special teams operation are the most potent parts of their game right now, but obviously if that is what you rely on the most for points, you will not win many games.
The Cowboys have currently lost more games than they have won, and they are clearly looking to rectify that with a Sunday afternoon trip to visit the Atlanta Falcons. Dallas is coming off a game in which the offense came alive late in the game (whether you believe this was garbage time or not) against the San Francisco 49ers, and NFL Pro predictions predict this trend to continue this week.
Predictions for the San Francisco 49ers game were somewhat accurate.
Before we get into the Falcons game, we should review last week’s estimates to see how accurate they were or weren’t. How much value can we place on something we don’t know the legitimacy of?
In case you were unaware this is an exercise that we have been performing every week of the season here on the blog; however, right now we are obviously talking about San Francisco specifically.
It turns out NFL Pro was close in a few areas within their projections.
- Projected Dak Prescott at San Francisco: 234.5 yards, 1.6 TDs, 0.8 INTs, 13 rush yards, 0.1 rush TDs
Actual: 243 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, -1 rush yards - Projected Rico Dowdle at San Francisco: 46.5 yards, 0.3 TDs, 2.1 rec, 15.1 rec yards, 0.1 rec TDs
Actual: Did not play due to illness - Projected CeeDee Lamb at San Francisco: 6 rec, 76 yards, 0.4 TDs
Actual: 13 rec, 146 yards, 1 TDs - Projected Jalen Tolbert at San Francisco: 3.2 rec, 38.5 yards, 0.3 TDs
Actual: 3 rec, 44 yards - Projected Jake Ferguson at San Francisco: 4.2 rec, 44.1 yards, 0.3 TDs
Actual: 6 rec, 23 yards
The yardage for both Dak Prescott and Jalen Tolbert was in the proper vicinity, although the former’s did not exactly come the way many would have expected it all to.
Obviously Rico Dowdle’s reported illness impacted his ability to live up to or surpass his own projection, but it is worth noting that the Cowboys as a whole barely passed his individual projection as they finished with 56 rushing yards as a group.
The good news, if there is any, is that the projections have grown for this week.
The Cowboys are expected to play more offense in Atlanta, according to projections.
As noted, the Cowboys are expected to achieve a bit more offensive success on Sunday against the Falcons than they were against the 49ers. The NFL Pro model does not, this is an assumption but it feels like a safe one, factor in things like a team’s history against another and obviously last week we were all hesitant about Dallas going up against San Francisco specifically given their recent battles.
That is a long way of saying that the Falcons are not the 49ers which is why, seemingly, the Cowboys are projected to put up a bit more on offense.
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Prescott is slated to pass for 250 yards, which is an increase, and although that is wonderful, expecting any rushing performance from him seems silly, especially since Jerry Jones has all but stated that the team does not want him carrying the ball.
Every pass catcher has a higher forecast than last week, with the exception of Rico Dowdle, who has a lower one. Again, we are in a unique situation.
If you flip to the second photo you will see that Kirk Cousins is also projected to hit 250 yards passing and that Bijan Robinson is projected to reach 74 yards rushing. It is worth noting that NFL Pro also states regarding this game that Robinson has a 57.6% success rate on runs that come under center so far this season. That is the highest among all running backs who have logged at least 30 carries.
Unfortunately, the Cowboys defense has given up the most touchdowns (11) and has allowed the second-best success rate (49.3%) on these exact type of runs. This does steer us into the advantages portion of our discussion here and while the Cowboys have a chance when they have the ball, Cousins may not struggle to hit 250.
Dallas figures to be able to handle pressure and against the blitz, but we have known for a long time now that Dak Prescott excels there. The trouble is that defenses know this and therefore don’t fall into the same trap that they used to.
While the Cowboys can conceivably hold their own through the air that is certainly not the case on the ground. As far as advantages in the ground game go, there is basically nothing but red.
The Cowboys are underdogs in this game and will need to find a way to do a lot of things they haven’t been able to do this season if they want to win and move back to.500 before facing the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans in back-to-back games. Following that, they head to face the Washington Commanders, who are highly popular these days.
This game feels like a must-win. There is no pressure.