According to a new Marist poll, Vice President Kamala Harris has a tiny advantage against former President Donald Trump in all three Rust Belt swing states.
Another poll found that a considerable proportion of Americans are afraid about post-election violence. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s bishops are pushing the state’s Catholics to vote with their faith in mind, rather than giving up on politics.
Marist Poll: Harris leads in Rust Belt swing states
According to a Nov. 1 poll in those states, Harris leads Trump by three percentage points in Michigan and by two points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The results show a tiny increase for Harris in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and a slight fall for her in Michigan, compared to the same poll conducted in September, all within the margin of error.
Those three states — which supported Trump in 2016 and opposed him in 2020 — will be key factors in determining whether Trump or Harris secures the requisite 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.
Pennsylvania in particular, with its 19 electoral votes, may live up to its nickname as the “keystone” contest in the election.
“The Keystone State is the biggest prize of the three highly competitive so-called Blue Wall states,” Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in a statement. “The good news for Harris is she is running stronger among independents and white voters than Biden did four years ago. The bad news is the gender gap is not as wide here as it was in 2020 or, in fact, where it is elsewhere now.”
On October 24, the same pollster reported Trump with a two-point edge in North Carolina, one point in Arizona, and a tie in Georgia.
A significant share of Americans are concerned about post-election violence
According to an Oct. 31 poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, the majority of Americans are apprehensive, frustrated, and interested in the 2024 presidential race, but few are enthusiastic.
According to a poll conducted by the same firm on October 28, 76% of respondents are afraid about violence aimed at overturning election results, with 42% extremely or very concerned about the likelihood.
The U.S. bishops have issued statements this year condemning political violence. In one such statement in June, Metropolitan Archbishop Borys A. Gudziak of the Ukrainian Catholic Archeparchy of Philadelphia condemned political violence after a similar poll found Americans said they are concerned that political violence could follow the Nov. 5 election.
In his statement, Archbishop Gudziak said, in “the best moments of American politics, people with very diverse viewpoints have found a way to unity, justice, peace, and ultimately, the common good.”
“That is the ideal to which good politics aspires,” said Archbishop Gudziak, who issued the statement as chairman of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops’ Committee on Domestic Justice and Human Development. “However, more and more it has become abundantly clear that violent behavior — both physical and verbal — is now seen by many as an acceptable means for carrying out political or ideological disputes. Political speech is often full of insults, fear, anger, and anxiety. Sadly, racism, religious discrimination, and xenophobia are on the rise. People in public office are receiving more death threats than ever before, some of which turn into physical attacks.”
He noted that about half of Americans “expect there will be violence in response to future presidential elections results.”
“America can do so much better,” Archbishop Gudziak added. “There is no good reason to resort to violence to resolve political issues. To start, there are countless non-violent and effective alternatives. Dialogue and voting better serve our human dignity, as do peaceful protests, petitions, lawsuits, and civil disobedience in the face of injustice. By contrast, violence harms innocent victims. Violence undermines order and the rule of law. Practically speaking, political violence does not ensure positive or lasting change.”
The Oct. 28 poll found that a large majority — 86% — of registered voters said the losing candidate “has an obligation to accept the results” of the election once votes are counted and legal challenges are resolved.
But just 33% said Trump, who has baselessly claimed that the 2020 election was stolen from him, will do so if he loses in 2024. But 77% of voters said they think Harris will concede if she loses.
Minnesota bishops provide advise on faithful citizenship
The Minnesota Catholic Conference sent a letter and video message encouraging Catholics to vote in the upcoming federal, state, and municipal elections.
The letter and video highlighted the principles outlined in the U.S. bishops’ teaching document “Forming Consciences for Faithful Citizenship,” meant to advise Catholic voters on how to apply church teaching to the decisions they make in the ballot box.
“As we discern our choices, let us remember that no candidate is likely to align fully with our positions,” their letter said. “And although we may not find a presidential candidate, for example, who aligns with all our values, that is not an excuse to abstain from voting altogether. There is a full ballot of candidates, each with the potential to shape our communities and our future.”
The bishops urged voters to consider whether candidates will work to protect human life at all stages of development, from abortion to assisted suicide; strengthen religious liberty; promote global peace; advocate for a just immigration system; and protect natural resources, among other issues.
Election Day is November 5.
