The matchup between the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 15 LSU Tigers this weekend in Baton Rouge is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal games of the 2024 college football season. With both teams already suffering two losses, this contest has become a must-win for either side if they hope to maintain realistic hopes of securing a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP). ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum has gone as far as to declare this game the single most significant of the season so far, not necessarily because of the teams’ current standing, but because the outcome will likely eliminate one from playoff contention.

Alabama and LSU both come into this game with a lot to prove. The Crimson Tide, despite an impressive win over the Georgia Bulldogs earlier in the season, have been inconsistent. After their victory over Georgia, Alabama suffered a shocking loss to Vanderbilt, followed by a road defeat to Tennessee. These two setbacks have placed them in a precarious position in the playoff race, as a third loss could potentially make it impossible to reach the postseason. Similarly, LSU’s road to the playoffs has been fraught with struggles. Their early loss to USC, which initially seemed like a fluke, looks more damaging with each passing week. More recently, a loss to Texas A&M has further complicated their path, leaving them with little margin for error.

With only seven at-large spots available in the expanded 12-team playoff format, the competition for these slots is expected to be fierce. For both Alabama and LSU, any further losses would essentially close the door on their playoff aspirations. While both teams are still alive in the SEC race, the playoff implications of this game cannot be overstated. The winner will still have a chance to regroup and potentially claim an at-large bid, but the loser will likely be on the outside looking in, needing to win out and hoping for some chaos to have a shot at postseason play.

Finebaum, while acknowledging LSU’s talent, believes Alabama has the edge in this game. One of the main reasons for his confidence in the Crimson Tide is quarterback Jalen Milroe, who has proven to be a dynamic dual-threat. Milroe’s ability to make plays both through the air and on the ground has given Alabama an edge in several close games this season. On the other side, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is a talented passer who can lead the Tigers’ offense, but Finebaum has pointed out that Nussmeier may struggle against Alabama’s defense in crucial moments, especially with the added pressure of playing at home in a must-win situation.

Despite the fact that this game is being played in one of the most hostile environments in college football — Tiger Stadium in Death Valley — Finebaum still gives Alabama the upper hand. He notes that while LSU is a dangerous team, Alabama’s balanced offensive attack, led by Milroe, will be difficult for LSU to stop, especially given the stakes. In what promises to be a hard-fought, high-pressure game, the winner will walk away with renewed hope for the playoff, while the loser will face an uphill battle just to remain relevant in the postseason conversation.

As the game approaches, all eyes will be on the two quarterbacks — Milroe for Alabama and Nussmeier for LSU — as they look to lead their respective teams into a critical showdown. With so much riding on this game, it’s clear that the loser of Alabama-LSU will likely miss out on the College Football Playoff, making this one of the most important games of the 2024 season.