Tennessee’s College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes took a significant hit on Saturday night with a loss to Georgia in Athens, marking the Volunteers’ second defeat of the season. This loss places Tennessee squarely in the middle of the two-loss chaos in the SEC, significantly complicating their path to the postseason. With the Vols ranked No. 7 in last week’s CFP poll and slipping to No. 10 in the latest AP Top 25, Tennessee’s playoff hopes are now reliant on several key outcomes over the final two weeks of the season.
As of now, Tennessee has a 65.8% chance to make the CFP, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). They are heavily favored to win out, with a 76.6% chance of taking care of business against UTEP and Vanderbilt. However, even a perfect finish won’t guarantee a playoff berth; Tennessee’s fate now lies in the hands of other teams, particularly those battling for at-large bids.
The landscape of the College Football Playoff picture is as competitive as ever, with several other one-loss and two-loss teams vying for a spot. The current auto-bids appear to be locked in: Oregon (Big Ten), BYU (Big 12), Miami (ACC), and Texas (SEC), with Boise State representing the Group of Five. The remaining at-large spots are where the real drama lies, with teams like Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia, and even Indiana positioning themselves to earn a spot.
Tennessee’s main competition comes from these teams, as well as Notre Dame. The Volunteers are at risk of falling further down the rankings, especially after their offensive struggles in recent weeks. The selection committee’s last evaluation of Tennessee placed them just behind both Indiana and BYU, despite the Vols’ early-season success. Tennessee’s loss to Georgia could see them dropped to 11th or even 13th in the next round of rankings, which would make the road to a top-four finish even more difficult.
To stay in contention, Tennessee needs several outcomes to go in their favor:
1. **Tennessee must beat Vanderbilt**: While Vanderbilt isn’t a powerhouse, the Commodores have shown the ability to play spoiler. A loss in Nashville would virtually end any hopes of a playoff berth.
2. **Indiana vs. Ohio State**: Indiana, despite being undefeated, has one of the weakest schedules in the Power Five. A big win by Ohio State here could push Indiana down to the bubble, opening a spot for Tennessee.
3. **Ole Miss vs. Florida**: If Florida, fresh off an upset win over LSU, can knock off Ole Miss, it would boost Tennessee’s chances significantly by knocking a major contender down.
4. **Notre Dame’s Fate**: A loss to Army or a defeat at USC would severely damage Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. Since the Irish are already ahead of Tennessee, their elimination would benefit the Vols.
5. **Georgia’s Matchup with Georgia Tech**: Though unlikely, a loss by Georgia to in-state rival Georgia Tech would remove a major competitor and potentially open a spot for Tennessee to rise.
6. **Alabama’s Rivalry Games**: Alabama, also a two-loss team, could further hurt Tennessee’s cause if they lose to either Oklahoma or Auburn, especially the latter in the Iron Bowl.
Given the tight competition, Tennessee’s playoff hopes are far from secure, even if they win out. The Vols will need to not only handle their business but also rely on a few upsets in the coming weeks to move back into playoff contention. The final rankings, set to be revealed on December 8th, will be critical in determining whether Tennessee can navigate through this crowded field to secure a coveted spot in the CFP.
