Do not make predictions about what American voters will do. They have repeatedly confused even the most respectable pollsters. All of the polls leading up to the November 5 elections showed the Republican Party’s Donald Trump and the Democratic Party’s Kamala Harris in too close a race to call. But the country awoke the next morning to hear that Trump had crushed Harris.
He handily secured the Electoral College vote. He won all seven battleground states that pollsters said would be a tossup between him and Harris. He won the popular vote, the first time a Republican president has done so in two decades. His Republican Party regained Senate power from the Democrats. The party also maintained its grip over the House of Representatives.
Voters chose a 78-year-old White man convicted of covering up a sex scandal instead of a 60-year-old woman who is half Black and half Indian. Trump has mocked women, transgender people, Muslims, Chinese Americans, and Hispanics. He once said Africa had shithole countries.
Yet he increased his share of votes among Black men, Hispanics, Muslims, Asian Americans, and women. These groups loyally supported the Democratic Party before. Only Blacks, especially Black women, overwhelmingly stayed loyal to Harris. Trump’s astounding victory shows a seismic shift in the American electorate.
His supporters had always been conservatives, Whites, Evangelicals, and pro-business groups. But Trump reshaped the Republican Party to include the working class and people without college degrees who normally voted Democrat.
Harris’s campaign promise of unity instead of division along racial, gender, and political lines didn’t motivate voters. She lost despite endorsements from megastars Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and others. She warned Trump would erode democracy, rule as an autocrat, and further restrict abortion rights. But voters cared more about inflation, the economy, and illegal immigration, issues that Trump campaigned on.
A New York Times columnist wondered if Trump had changed America or revealed it. He concluded Trump revealed America’s true face. Voters elected him despite his insults and racial taunts. They twice rejected a woman presidential candidate, Democrats Harris and Hillary Clinton who both lost to Trump. They didn’t care that he tried to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory and indirectly urged supporters to storm the Congress.
The Democratic Party now finds itself in the wilderness. Blacks, Hispanics, women, and the working class, which formed the base of the party, felt they had been taken for granted. They concluded the party had become too elitist, too liberal left, and too out of touch.
Trump has become the most powerful American president in modern times. He controls the White House and both houses of Congress. Those he chose as cabinet members and top officials have pledged total loyalty to him. A Trump-friendly Supreme Court ruled last July that former and current presidents cannot be prosecuted for crimes that were official acts. As president, he can pardon himself or ask his attorney general to nullify his sex scandal conviction and many other pending charges against him.
That effectively makes Trump both president and king with a mandate from the people. It allows him to rule the way he wants. A New York Times headline said: “America Hires a Strongman”. His goal is to remold America to his liking, warn the world the US will no longer tolerate unfair trade, and make clear to allies they must increase military spending if they want US protection.
He has surrounded his new administration with the most anti-China hawks to date. His nominees for the CIA, Defense Secretary, and National Security Advisor are all anti-China. Most concerning for Beijing and Hong Kong is his appointment of Senator Marco Rubio, who has twice been sanctioned by China, as Secretary of State. Rubio strongly supports Taiwanese and Hong Kong democracy demonstrators.
He sponsored legislation to close Hong Kong‘s trade offices in the United States, advocated for sanctions against Hong Kong and mainland officials, demanded that the State Department prevent US-sanctioned Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu from attending last year’s APEC summit in San Francisco, and regards China as America’s greatest adversary.
No one knows what the unpredictable Trump will do. Trade tariffs against China are almost certain, but they may not be as high as the 60 percent he threatened. Trump’s accusation that Taiwan stole America’s chip industry is likely a warning that Taipei, which Congress supports, must buy more US weapons. NATO and Asian allies know Trump means what he said about increasing defense spending.
China, the second largest economic and military superpower, which the US believes wants to be the top superpower, is the wild card. Trump’s best card is making deals. He could make a deal that China buys more US goods, lifts sanctions against Rubio, and releases Apple Daily founder Jimmy Lai Chee-ying in return for lifting sanctions against Hong Kong and mainland officials and allowing Hong Kong’s trade offices to remain in the US.
It is a workable political compromise. Can China accept Lai’s release since Beijing and Hong Kong have already rejected US requests for meddling in their domestic affairs? Will China waive sanctions on Rubio after the United States barred sanctioned Lee Ka-chiu from attending last year’s APEC summit in California? Will the anti-China Congress accept Trump’s deal-making? Time will tell.
