The College Football Playoff (CFP) landscape is always fluid, with factors like conference championships, strength of schedule, and quality wins often dictating which teams ultimately make the cut. For the Texas Longhorns, a team with high expectations and a storied history, the question of whether they could afford another loss and still make the playoff has been a major talking point this season. Just a few weeks ago, CBS Sportsline referred to the Longhorns as a “100% lock” to make the playoff, but recent speculation has clouded that certainty, especially with the added pressure of a crowded SEC field and the looming prospect of a second loss.
The initial optimism surrounding Texas’ playoff hopes stemmed from their dominant early-season performances, including a significant victory over Alabama. Their résumé was strengthened by a combination of high-profile wins and the perception that the Big 12 would be a relatively smooth path to the championship game. The Longhorns appeared to be a strong contender not just for a conference title but for a top-four spot in the CFP rankings. However, as the season has progressed, cracks have begun to show.
As of late November, Texas remains in the playoff conversation, but the path has gotten increasingly complicated. With teams like Kentucky and Texas A&M on the horizon, the possibility of a second loss in a critical stretch of the season is a real concern. A second loss would bring up a key question: Can a two-loss Texas team still make the CFP? In a year with a logjam at the top, especially in the SEC where multiple teams like Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri are vying for spots, a second loss could be devastating for Texas’ playoff dreams.
The current scenario highlights how much the college football playoff selection process is influenced by conference affiliations and the strength of competition. If Texas were to lose again, it could be edged out by teams in stronger conferences with similar or better records. For example, in the SEC, teams like Alabama and Georgia have the benefit of consistently strong schedules and historically powerful programs, which gives them an edge in the eyes of the committee, even if their losses are similar to Texas’ potential losses.
Moreover, the changing dynamics of the Big 12 also present a challenge. As Texas prepares for its move to the SEC in 2024, the remaining teams in the Big 12, such as Kansas State and Oklahoma State, have been much more competitive this season, potentially creating an unpredictable road to the conference championship. Texas’ loss to a team like Kansas State could hurt their standing in the committee’s eyes, especially if a one-loss SEC team or a Big Ten champion emerges as the top contenders.
The reality is that while Texas’ early-season success made them a “lock” for the playoff, the current college football landscape is unforgiving. A second loss would not only hurt their standing but could also open the door for other one-loss teams to leapfrog them in the rankings. This makes the remaining games critical, as Texas needs to prove it can win out and secure a spot in the final four, despite the growing logjam at the top of college football. Ultimately, the question of whether a second loss would eliminate them from playoff contention may come down to how other teams perform down the stretch and whether the committee values Texas’ overall body of work over other teams with comparable records.
