For the past week, Alabama has been a passenger in this College Football Playoff scenario machine.
That surge peaked Tuesday night, when the Crimson Tide was ranked 11th in the penultimate CFP rankings, making them the winner of the triple losers (along with Miami).
Things quickly got out of hand.
That’s life riding shotgun along a road covered with boulders and riddled with trapdoors. The play on Saturday night was a bewildering journey along branched paths in search of what Alabama wanted from the ACC championship.
Seeing SMU fall behind 24-7, the Crimson Tide became Clemson fans for a blowout.
Then, when the Mustangs made their dramatic comeback, Alabama had to swap sides. From 17 down to a tied game with just seconds to play, SMU needed to win and was doing its part.
Suddenly, a big Clemson kickoff return, a quick pass and finally a 56-yard field goal.
And poof.
Worst-case scenario for Alabama.
The 34-31 Clemson win on the game’s final play was the last thing the Crimson Tide needed with the 13-member selection committee watching in suburban Dallas.
A blowout SMU loss would’ve played nicely for Alabama’s case, especially considering it beat newly-crowned SEC champ Georgia.
However, a buzzer-beating loss to SMU renders rejecting the Mustangs unsustainable in terms of playoff structure and conference organization. Shutting out a league title game participant who rallied from 17 points behind in the fourth quarter would permanently destabilize the already unstable framework constructed by the commissioners who design the playoff system.
If SMU played the final three quarters like it did in the first, Alabama would have a field day.
However, they didn’t.
This is when the eye exam becomes important, and SMU passed it. The Mustangs accumulated 458 yards to Clemson’s 326. SMU had 28 first downs vs Clemson’s 18.
SMU isn’t any better than Alabama, but the committee’s hand is pretty much forced given the circumstances.
It’s messy.
But that’s the issue when you take the ride via ticket instead of playing the game.
Alabama did this to itself.
Don’t want to sweat out championship Saturday? Don’t take a 24-3 loss at an Oklahoma team that entered 5-5 overall and 1-5 in the SEC.
Don’t let this become a discussion.
Alabama was in one of these toss-ups last year, in the final year of the four-team bracket. After defeating Georgia in the SEC championship game, we predicted that the one-loss Crimson Tide will overcome unbeaten Florida State for the last position.
The committee agreed, Alabama ultimately lost in overtime of the Rose Bowl semifinal and Florida State’s never been the same.
Now, that same governing body must assess a three-loss Alabama team with an ACC finalist who lost its second game Saturday night. The overwhelming sentiment is behind SMU given the way it played while Alabama left its fate in the hands of others.
Alabama will point to its three wins over CFP-ranked teams and the fact that SMU is 0-2 against ranked teams. If that was the only data point, the choice is clearly Alabama.
But slam the door on SMU and the future of conference title games and the cash they produce fall into question. Mustang coach Rhett Lashley this week said there would be no reason for a team inside the top 12 to play in a league championship game if it can get jumped by an idle team.
That case would’ve been weaker with a blowout loss Saturday, but SMU’s margin couldn’t have been thinner. There would be a revolution if nuclear-blast-resistant Alabama jumped a team that lost on a 56-yard field goal that cleared the crossbar by a foot.
SMU could’ve made it easy, but Alabama got the ticket for which it paid.
It’ll most likely receive a trip to Orlando for the Citrus Bowl now, since that’s what happens when you delegate responsibility.
The Tennessee loss was manageable. If Alabama wanted to avoid an unsightly ACC title game between mid-pack SEC teams, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma would be a “either” rather than a “and.”
If Alabama wants to keep hope alive, the committee may always base its decision on schedule strength. The fact that Miami had no rated wins appeared to be the determining factor when Alabama beat the Hurricanes last week. SMU has the same number of rated victories.
But, if the sport wants to prevent conference championship boycotts, SMU will take the final position.
